15 degrees is considered 'standard day' temperature.
You'd need a few more pieces of information....what compound (soft, medium or hard)...what track' surface (asphalt or concrete)...elevation, density altitude, etc.
It can get rather complex based on those parameters.
When the surface of the rubber gets too hot, it will blister...think of it as taking a torch and passing it over rubber.
The surface becomes more of a plastic-like form and has less grip.
Shearing from abrasion is quite different.
It forms minute stretches of the rubber or 'graining'....again less grip due to lower boundary contact.
If it not too severe, graining can be 'cleaned' up as the rubber 're-flows'.
Unlike graining, blisters will usually get worst... sometimes resulting in carcass delamination.