Here are the complete set of upgrades, for each car, for each race. I pulled this out of the game database. It might be useful to someone.
When you join a team, it already has an R&D path set. Here are the default R&D paths, again taken from the database:
The database is completely silent on what aggressive, balanced and intermediate actually mean, which is a pity because to work that out is why I went to all this trouble.
It's apparent that aggressive gives you the most upgrade opportunities, and balanced the least. Experience shows that aggressive doesn't give you 100% of available upgrades.
I posit aggressive gives you an 80% chance of the game offering you a chance for the upgrade, balanced a 50% chance, and intermediate presumably halfway in between at 65%. So if you're in a a Sauber on Intermediate R&D at Spain, there's a 65% chance the game will give you a go at winning the upgrade. I think. Everything in this paragraph is pure speculation.
I've seen suggestions that balanced gives you fewer upgrades in return for a better car the following year, if you stick with that team. The database absolutely does not support that idea. What is true, demonstrable by experiment, is that choosing balanced causes the game to set you lower race targets than if you choose aggressive. For example I signed for a second year with Sauber when the R&D path was aggressive. The game set me a target of #8 in driver standings. When I then selected intermediate for the next year's R&D, my target changed to #10. Presumably if I'd selected balanced, my target would have changed to #12.
I'm pretty sure your choice of R&D path has no effect on the tier of your car the following year; you go up a tier no matter what. There's nothing in the database to prove that, but I've yet to hear of a car that didn't consistently improve year on year.
So that, as far as I can tell, is everything to be gleaned from the database about car upgrades.
Bahrain | Austrailia | Malaysia | China | Spain | Monaco | Turkey | Canada | Valencia | Britain | Germany | Hungary | Belgium | Italy | Singapore | Japan | Korea | Brazil | Abu_Dhabi | |
Ferrari | none | Standard | Minor | Minor | Package | Unique | Minor | Minor | Minor | Standard | Standard | Minor | Package | Unique | Minor | Minor | Standard | Standard | none |
McLaren | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | Standard | Unique | Minor | Standard | Minor | Package | Minor | Minor | Standard | Unique | Package | Standard | Minor | Minor | none |
Mercedes | none | Minor | Minor | Standard | Minor | Unique | Minor | Standard | Standard | Package | Minor | Minor | Package | Unique | Standard | Minor | Minor | none | none |
Redbull | none | Standard | Minor | Minor | Package | Unique | Minor | Standard | Minor | Standard | Minor | Minor | Unique | Package | Minor | Standard | Minor | none | none |
Renault | none | Minor | none | Minor | Package | Minor | Minor | Standard | Minor | Standard | Standard | Minor | Package | Unique | Unique | Standard | Minor | Minor | none |
Torro Ross | none | Minor | none | Minor | Standard | Unique | Minor | Minor | none | Standard | Minor | Standard | Unique | Package | Minor | Minor | none | Minor | none |
Williams | none | Minor | Minor | Standard | Package | Unique | Minor | Minor | Standard | Package | Minor | Minor | Unique | Minor | Standard | Minor | none | none | none |
Force India | none | none | Minor | Minor | Standard | Unique | Minor | Standard | Minor | Package | Minor | none | Unique | Minor | Minor | Standard | none | Minor | Minor |
Sauber | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | Package | Minor | Standard | none | Minor | Minor | Package | Minor | Minor | Unique | Unique | Standard | Minor | none | Minor |
HRT | none | none | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | Minor | none | Package | Minor | Standard | Minor | Minor | Unique | Minor | Standard | none | Minor | none |
Virgin | none | none | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | Minor | none | Minor | Package | Minor | Minor | Unique | Standard | Standard | Minor | none | Minor | none |
Lotus | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | none | Standard | Minor | none | Minor | Standard | Minor | none | Unique | Minor | Package | Minor | Minor | none | none |
When you join a team, it already has an R&D path set. Here are the default R&D paths, again taken from the database:
Ferrari | aggressive |
McLaren | intermediate |
Mercedes | balanced |
Redbull | aggressive |
Renault | intermediate |
Torro Ross | balanced |
Williams | intermediate |
Force India | aggressive |
Sauber | aggressive |
HRT | balanced |
Virgin | intermediate |
Lotus | balanced |
The database is completely silent on what aggressive, balanced and intermediate actually mean, which is a pity because to work that out is why I went to all this trouble.
It's apparent that aggressive gives you the most upgrade opportunities, and balanced the least. Experience shows that aggressive doesn't give you 100% of available upgrades.
I posit aggressive gives you an 80% chance of the game offering you a chance for the upgrade, balanced a 50% chance, and intermediate presumably halfway in between at 65%. So if you're in a a Sauber on Intermediate R&D at Spain, there's a 65% chance the game will give you a go at winning the upgrade. I think. Everything in this paragraph is pure speculation.
I've seen suggestions that balanced gives you fewer upgrades in return for a better car the following year, if you stick with that team. The database absolutely does not support that idea. What is true, demonstrable by experiment, is that choosing balanced causes the game to set you lower race targets than if you choose aggressive. For example I signed for a second year with Sauber when the R&D path was aggressive. The game set me a target of #8 in driver standings. When I then selected intermediate for the next year's R&D, my target changed to #10. Presumably if I'd selected balanced, my target would have changed to #12.
I'm pretty sure your choice of R&D path has no effect on the tier of your car the following year; you go up a tier no matter what. There's nothing in the database to prove that, but I've yet to hear of a car that didn't consistently improve year on year.
So that, as far as I can tell, is everything to be gleaned from the database about car upgrades.