Strange, I don't know, unless it's something to do with the change from a 32 bit to a 64 bit operating system
Perhaps something is stored in the save files about the current system, but I really don't know.
I did a complete fresh install of this game a few weeks ago now, and used the backups of the above folders, exactly the way you have just done it. Install, patch, create profile using same name as before, quit, and copy backup folder into the install. It worked with no errors. The only difference is that I used the same operating system, it was just a game re-install only.
EDIT: Come to think about it, after the re-install, I don't think I had my wheel plugged it. I just created the profile having started the game from the keyboard. I then copied the backups into the install, started the game with keyboard to check if my career was there. It was there, so I quit, plugged in the wheel, then started the game again to set it up.
Maybe that wasn't an important factor, but you could try it just in case.