Self Driving Cars.... I was looking forward to them...
- Thread starter RCHeliguy
- Start date
Good concept but not for everyone.
I do not foresee a time in my life wherein I would be 100% comfortable letting a self-driving car take me anywhere.
One might say airplanes already use a form of it with a flight director and autopilot.
That is indeed true.
The difference is.... In an aircraft, most situation generally have the benefit of altitude to get things under control.
It is also the reason we basically disengage autopilot for landing.
Unknowns such as micro-burst and windshear can through even the best automation for a loop at a critical time.
I do wish though, self drive was further ahead for those folks who cannot seem to put down the 'idiot box' aka...cellphone.
I do not foresee a time in my life wherein I would be 100% comfortable letting a self-driving car take me anywhere.
One might say airplanes already use a form of it with a flight director and autopilot.
That is indeed true.
The difference is.... In an aircraft, most situation generally have the benefit of altitude to get things under control.
It is also the reason we basically disengage autopilot for landing.
Unknowns such as micro-burst and windshear can through even the best automation for a loop at a critical time.
I do wish though, self drive was further ahead for those folks who cannot seem to put down the 'idiot box' aka...cellphone.
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Self driving has turned out to be a more difficult task than expected, but it will definitely achieve at least as good a safety record as the relatively poor performance of humans. Just avoiding the 'roided-out and distracted behavioral traps that people fall into will help. However, money and politics will slow the roll-out.
Who wouldn't like to turn an awful commute into a nap or some time watching a video or video-chatting, etc? Or, had a few too many drinks? Turn on auto-drive and you are good.
Oh, but that requires a $10,000 add-on to your car that you didn't buy, or a $10 a day subscription that you hate the idea of, and you know you aren't going to spend the time and energy (and money) to sign up while drunk off your @ss anyway.
Eventually, probably in the face of a decade of opposition lobbying and selective public relations efforts from manufacturers, these driving aids will be mandated or otherwise deemed essential by consumers, just like seat-belts or anti-lock brakes are today. (We'll pay anyway, as a hidden charge if not a direct one.)
I think it will work out for the better, eventually. But I do wonder how the knee-jerk "My Freedoms!" crowd will take it when they can't drive their diesel pickups (that are cos-playing as pedestrian-eating freight-trains) in the newly-designated electric-only and/or auto-drive-only highways and cities.
Alas, it will come for performance cars too. I would consider self-driving in my manual R8 Spyder to be the antithesis of a required feature. I'd wind up with a different car for that to make sense, and as I get older I expect I'd look forward to that.
Who wouldn't like to turn an awful commute into a nap or some time watching a video or video-chatting, etc? Or, had a few too many drinks? Turn on auto-drive and you are good.
Oh, but that requires a $10,000 add-on to your car that you didn't buy, or a $10 a day subscription that you hate the idea of, and you know you aren't going to spend the time and energy (and money) to sign up while drunk off your @ss anyway.
Eventually, probably in the face of a decade of opposition lobbying and selective public relations efforts from manufacturers, these driving aids will be mandated or otherwise deemed essential by consumers, just like seat-belts or anti-lock brakes are today. (We'll pay anyway, as a hidden charge if not a direct one.)
I think it will work out for the better, eventually. But I do wonder how the knee-jerk "My Freedoms!" crowd will take it when they can't drive their diesel pickups (that are cos-playing as pedestrian-eating freight-trains) in the newly-designated electric-only and/or auto-drive-only highways and cities.
Alas, it will come for performance cars too. I would consider self-driving in my manual R8 Spyder to be the antithesis of a required feature. I'd wind up with a different car for that to make sense, and as I get older I expect I'd look forward to that.
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RCHeliguy
Premium
It will definitely happen and the insurance companies will support it.
About 40,000 people in the US die in auto crashes each year. Then there are 100's of thousands of injuries and of course car damage.
But lets say a 100% automated fleet of cars still ends up with 2,000 people dying a year in car crashes. People will sensationalize those crashes like plane crashes and make people not trust AI driving even if it ends up much safer than people.
Take your average teen who would rather be texting or your elderly people who still want to get around but aren't really competent drivers anymore. This would be massively safer.
FWIW Google's self driving pilot in Arizona is doing extremely well and people are saying that over two years the cars have learned to drive much better.
So my guess is that while there is no such thing as perfect, that AI driving cars will improve exponentially and very quickly be vastly better then a person could ever hope to be.
The trickledown is that pedestrians will become bolder as they learn to trust that the never distracted AI will always stop in time to protect them. Some have even suggested that this could become a problem with people just learning that they can walk across streets without thinking about it.
Autobody shops will see a definite drop in business and eventually cars will become more of a service than something people own.
About 40,000 people in the US die in auto crashes each year. Then there are 100's of thousands of injuries and of course car damage.
But lets say a 100% automated fleet of cars still ends up with 2,000 people dying a year in car crashes. People will sensationalize those crashes like plane crashes and make people not trust AI driving even if it ends up much safer than people.
Take your average teen who would rather be texting or your elderly people who still want to get around but aren't really competent drivers anymore. This would be massively safer.
FWIW Google's self driving pilot in Arizona is doing extremely well and people are saying that over two years the cars have learned to drive much better.
So my guess is that while there is no such thing as perfect, that AI driving cars will improve exponentially and very quickly be vastly better then a person could ever hope to be.
The trickledown is that pedestrians will become bolder as they learn to trust that the never distracted AI will always stop in time to protect them. Some have even suggested that this could become a problem with people just learning that they can walk across streets without thinking about it.
Autobody shops will see a definite drop in business and eventually cars will become more of a service than something people own.
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Yes, I agree with almost all of that. The sensationalizing of relatively few self-driving accidents are not doing the industry any favors.
I've also wondered about how soon pedestrian's knowledge of self-driving car's behavior would become a thing. But the bigger problem is likely to be from people who are still driving themselves, knowing that they can cut-off, etc., self-driving cars with impunity, since self-driving cars will likely react submissively in order to avoid an accident. There's going to be a lot of novel problems as the mix becomes more like 50-50. I'm sure there's research going on into this sort of issue.
I think we can expect a lot of changes in the insurance world as well. Car companies obviously want to continue to evade liability for accidents even as they supply their own self-driving solutions (Tesla has been positively rabid about this). As insurance companies will wish to avoid as much liability as they reasonably can too, they will come down heavily on individuals. There will likely eventually be a discount for using self-driving, or more likely a surcharge for not. Or, if that's not enough, there will be new policies that simply exclude coverage for incidents while self-driving is not engaged.
Eventually, cars just won't have any controls at all, except maybe emergency controls, e.g. via an app, to manually move a car under geofenced limits. That wouldn't sit well with the Ferrari crowd, but I'll take it if I can convert my seat to a bed and dim the windows.
Finally, subscription models are taking over everything. Within another 5-10 years, or about the time self-driving becomes the default, I'd expect it to be normal for people in first-world countries to hold an all-inclusive subscription to an insured self-driving car. That's been tried already, of course, but once cars drive themselves it makes a lot more sense for them to be considered appliances rather than personal expressions.
I've also wondered about how soon pedestrian's knowledge of self-driving car's behavior would become a thing. But the bigger problem is likely to be from people who are still driving themselves, knowing that they can cut-off, etc., self-driving cars with impunity, since self-driving cars will likely react submissively in order to avoid an accident. There's going to be a lot of novel problems as the mix becomes more like 50-50. I'm sure there's research going on into this sort of issue.
I think we can expect a lot of changes in the insurance world as well. Car companies obviously want to continue to evade liability for accidents even as they supply their own self-driving solutions (Tesla has been positively rabid about this). As insurance companies will wish to avoid as much liability as they reasonably can too, they will come down heavily on individuals. There will likely eventually be a discount for using self-driving, or more likely a surcharge for not. Or, if that's not enough, there will be new policies that simply exclude coverage for incidents while self-driving is not engaged.
Eventually, cars just won't have any controls at all, except maybe emergency controls, e.g. via an app, to manually move a car under geofenced limits. That wouldn't sit well with the Ferrari crowd, but I'll take it if I can convert my seat to a bed and dim the windows.
Finally, subscription models are taking over everything. Within another 5-10 years, or about the time self-driving becomes the default, I'd expect it to be normal for people in first-world countries to hold an all-inclusive subscription to an insured self-driving car. That's been tried already, of course, but once cars drive themselves it makes a lot more sense for them to be considered appliances rather than personal expressions.
RCHeliguy
Premium
RCHeliguy
Premium
Another reason self driving cars will happen.
Amazon's AI-powered cameras punish its delivery drivers when they look at side mirrors or when other cars cut them off, report says
Amazon drivers have been punished for looking at side mirrors, adjusting the radio, and being cut off in traffic by other people, Motherboard reports.
As someone who lives in a small town in the west of Ireland self driving cars would solve a lot of problems for people here. You kind of need a car to get around here or your stuck with whatever services are in the town. Your basically paying premium prices for stuff. If you can get to the next town over 10 miles away, you have Lidl and other supermarkets and can get better prices.
I know lots of people that don't have cars and need to organise lifts. If they could call a self driving car when needed it would make their life much easier.
The other issue is rural pubs are dying off, one of the reasons is we can't drink and drive anymore. Even if you're only a 5 minute walk from the pub, the Irish weather would put you off making the trek. Another issue self driving cars could fix. There are local hackney taxi's but they cost a fortune and aren't available all the time.
I think car companies are in a spot of bother when it comes to self driving cars. The big advantage of self driving is you don't really need to own the car, that would mean more people could use less cars, which isn't good for the profit margins of car manufactures. They're going to have to change he way they make money.
I know lots of people that don't have cars and need to organise lifts. If they could call a self driving car when needed it would make their life much easier.
The other issue is rural pubs are dying off, one of the reasons is we can't drink and drive anymore. Even if you're only a 5 minute walk from the pub, the Irish weather would put you off making the trek. Another issue self driving cars could fix. There are local hackney taxi's but they cost a fortune and aren't available all the time.
I think car companies are in a spot of bother when it comes to self driving cars. The big advantage of self driving is you don't really need to own the car, that would mean more people could use less cars, which isn't good for the profit margins of car manufactures. They're going to have to change he way they make money.
RCHeliguy
Premium
Besides self-driving car services, which Uber and Ford are looking into. Elon has suggested that self driving Tesla's could potentially "earn their keep" while you sleep and aren't using them or working from home and don't need them for a stretch of time. You could just mark you car as available for a certain period of time and let it go out and collect fairs.
Ford is looking to put it's dealerships out of business and offer a direct auto-driving service. At some point most people won't bother to own a car. I know that I work from home and sometimes if the weather isn't nice my car doesn't leave my garage for 3-4 days at a time.
I don't see people letting out their car while they're asleep. As you can see from my post, around here that means people are using your car to get home from the pub and that's never going to end well. I could see some other issues popping up (maybe no as much of an issue in the states) on insurance and liability, I'd image here in Europe you won't be able to do that without setting yourself up as a business and having all the correct paperwork.
I could see the local taxi man deciding to buy one or two electrics and letting them off though.
I remember that statement from Tesla. Elon was either being his normal bat-crazy self, or it was just him justifying raising the so-called "full self driving" cost to $10,000. In the same statement, he claimed that Tesla would eventually dramatically raise the price of the cars, too, since they would be so valuable as robo-taxis it wouldn't make sense to sell them for less. And remember when you couldn't buy the car for a residual after a lease, you had to give it up? Yeah, robo-taxis! That last bit did make me wonder if they were serious, but no, they abandoned that policy, too.
I don't need to bring up the many, many times that Elon has made wildly exaggerated claims and statements. Even the stuffy old FTC is finally wondering how it has been letting Tesla get away with calling their problematic level 2 aid "full self driving" for so long.
All that is to say that I also don't see most people renting out their cars either. Hehe.
I think the most natural progression in the near term is for no genuine "full self driving" solution, but instead we will see increasingly reliable and comprehensive driving-safety assistance to be standard. (Standard because selling safety as an option sounds so wrong, and countries will eventually mandate safety improvements anyway.) This would be augmented with a package of frills on a subscription basis that would extend to more autonomy as a convenience rather than for safety.
I don't need to bring up the many, many times that Elon has made wildly exaggerated claims and statements. Even the stuffy old FTC is finally wondering how it has been letting Tesla get away with calling their problematic level 2 aid "full self driving" for so long.
All that is to say that I also don't see most people renting out their cars either. Hehe.
I think the most natural progression in the near term is for no genuine "full self driving" solution, but instead we will see increasingly reliable and comprehensive driving-safety assistance to be standard. (Standard because selling safety as an option sounds so wrong, and countries will eventually mandate safety improvements anyway.) This would be augmented with a package of frills on a subscription basis that would extend to more autonomy as a convenience rather than for safety.
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RCHeliguy
Premium
I understand that. If I purchased a well appointed Model S, I would keep it tucked away in my garage when I wasn't using it to keep it pristine. My current 10 year old car purchased still new looks new and runs perfectly and I like having it "clean". If my car came back after a long night's work smelling of vomit, I don't think I'd be very happy about it. Not to mention stains, cuts in the upholstery etc...
Electric cars is that they have a tiny fraction of the number of moving parts of an ICE car and once the battery technology is a bit further where the battery pack could outlive most people buying the car, they could be a one time purchase and end up with lots of interchangeable parts to change with the styles and for current interior electronics.
Electric cars is that they have a tiny fraction of the number of moving parts of an ICE car and once the battery technology is a bit further where the battery pack could outlive most people buying the car, they could be a one time purchase and end up with lots of interchangeable parts to change with the styles and for current interior electronics.
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I'm a cyclist and offline sim user with much experience of self driving AI.
I'm going to die aren't I?
I'm going to die aren't I?
RCHeliguy
Premium
I'm a cyclist too and honestly I would trust a self driving AI over a pile of the distracted drivers out there with kids or dogs in the car, or who just have to get that text out.
AI's will very quickly become vastly better drivers than 99.999% of the population.
In fact there are concerns that because AI's will be that good, pedestrians will just start walking out into traffic because they are confident that the AI's will stop in time and that they are perfectly safe doing so.
The Google self driving vehicles in Arizona have improved DRAMATICALLY in the two years they've been running and they will likely improve in a nearly exponential way. Fairly soon people will be much more dangerous drivers than AI's are and Insurance companies will offer you a discount if you let an AI drive your car, etc.. etc..
Eventually they will likely become mandated to help save the nearly 40,000 people killed each year in auto accidents, nevermind the hundreds of thousands of people injured and all the damage done to cars and property.
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