In Motorsports, tires are the most researched thing in the world.
But it´s also the least understood one.
Tire physics is
one of the most complex subjects in the world.
It is also one of the most researched, but least understood?!
One thing is the complexity inherent to bringing the mathematical/physical models of tires to the world of 1s and 0s - doing so and in such a manner as to use the full capacity of today's computing power is indeed quite a challenge. There also several models to choose from, and several mathematical frameworks to analyse and predict the behaviour of tires. Not an easy task and we're probably not there yet in terms of computing power needed to achieve full prediction.
Another thing is:do we understand them? Yes. Obviously, there are as many circumstances as there are tires. You pick a tire and the same tire will perform differently in the same track and used by the same car and driver. All it takes is different track temperatures, humidity, some dust, some rubber.
There are many variables at play, and scientists quite probably have a clear view and understanding on what those are. Problem is integrating this into a whole and use it to correctly explain certain phenomena and safely predict behaviour under the same circumstances. Not an easy task, but that doesn't mean we understand little of tires and their behaviour.
Look at F1 today, not even Pirelli understands their own tires it seems.
That's an exaggeration. Newer compounds, new car regulations - it is not easy to predict tire degradation for a large range of track temps, cars and pilot driving styles.
People are probably asking the impossible.
When NTM 2.1 comes out you will start to see the next evolution of the tire model.
You have to build the basement before you start building the first floor my friend.
DK has been at it (NTM) for at least 3 years. He made some decisions that ended up costly (egg: his "theoretical thermodynamics" model).
The NTM was already announced as the "big revolution". Turns out the preview was better than the official 2.0 release. We discussed this for weeks at iRacing forums with DK himself. We know what some of his and his staff responses were. And we now know certain things didn't work out exactly as they intended and predicted. Finally, in the past 3 or 4 months, a series of updates brought the NTM back on track.
So, maybe we should refrain from jumping on the bandwagon and believe every milestone will be the next big revolution or evolution.
That´s because the tire model is still a work in progress.
However it is still 100 times better then the OTM which had no relation to reality, it was all fantasy numbers.
It is clear you have given a lot of thought to these matters and have closely followed DK's work.
However, do remember when they (iRacing) and fanboys yelled to the world that the OTM was much, much better than anything else - isiMotor2 and NKP included. Do remember when they said that it was already based on accurate calculations, even if based on an empiric model.
Changing OTM to NTM is, to most people, a buzz word. A buzz word they swallow and parrot all day long without the slightest hint of what both models entail.
DK is following, so he says (I tend to believe him), a full theoretical model. Ok. But, today, even tire companies are still using variations of Pacejka's work. If it is that bad, why are chemists/physicists/mathematicians/engineers working for Pirelly, Dunlop, Michelin and whatnot still employing variations of Pacejka's work? Obviously, you have to look at the math to understand why and why is it that full theoretical models present so many, many problems that tire and racing teams still employ other models.
Think about it. Think about what a full theoretical model entails: from thermodynamics, to materials science and chemistry. The amount of work to actually make it work is such that not even DK will go that way because there's simply not enough time, man-power or money to correctly research and develop such a model. What DK is actually doing is an approximation of a full theoretical model, with its inevitable compromises.
But that's ok. Most models in chemistry and physics have to overcome difficulties and compromises, eventually.
Bottom line is, whether it be from a empirical model, or a semi-empirical one, or a full theoretical, you have NO WAY OF KNOWING how much "fantasy numbers" are being used - unless the developer chooses to tell you.
Oh, this being a thread about bans and reasons...
AJ (WMD) made several interesting comments on isiMotor2 and iRacing's NTM (some I agree with, some I don't). Why then can't people freely discuss all these things, freely make comparisons?